Alexander Motyl, historian and professor at Rutgers University, in the United States, believes that Ukraine’s counteroffensive to recover territory invaded by Russia is not at a stalemate, and assures that if European countries were more generous with the shipment of weaponsthe war could end sooner.
Joe Biden’s advisers and security officials privately doubt that Ukraine can recover all of its territory and criticize Zelensky’s military strategy. Why these criticisms now?
The reason is simple. They expected a spectacular advance in the Ukrainian counteroffensive. This has not been the case, which is why some now claim that this is a stalemate that neither side can break and win. In fact, Ukraine is making steady but gradual progress while destroying Russian infrastructure, fuel and ammunition depots, command and control centers, etc. But None of these advances are spectacular, which is what policy makers expected. And what is more important, there are also people who argue that Ukraine is progressing and that, in fact, there is no deadlock.
Why will the war in Ukraine be long? Will Western allies supply more weapons to Ukraine in the future without conditions?
If a stalemate is reached, the war could be long. But Ukraine is progressively pushing Russia back. So there is no deadlock. Furthermore, it is not clear that Russia has the necessary resources for a protracted war. The reserves of soldiers and supplies are dwindling. The new mobilization is likely to provoke social discontent. The National Guard has recently participated in crowd control and riot control exercises. And what is more important, Putin is under attack and his position has been considerably weakened. If he leaves, as will likely happen sooner rather than later, the war effort could easily collapse. As for the West, it continues to support Ukraine, but it is clear that people are tired and hope that the war will end soon. If that were all that mattered, weapons could be reduced in the near to medium future. However, for better or worse, Putin always manages to remind the West, with some threatening or brutal gesture, that he and Russia remain a threat to the security, not only of Ukraine, but also of the West.
What can we expect if Trump wins the presidential election regarding Ukraine?
It is impossible to say. America will be deeply divided, riots and violence are possible. Under such conditions, I doubt that Trump will be able to reverse US policy towards Ukraine. In fact, andThings are likely to remain constant for a while.. That being said, since the US is going to be a disaster, any forecast is purely speculative.
What kind of weapons does Ukraine urgently need?
Ukraine needs to have the ability to destroy the heavily entrenched Russian troops. The ideal would be to have more air power so that Ukraine can bomb the defense lines. Otherwise, it is essential to have more artillery shellsas well as tanks and armored personnel carriers.
Is the EU being generous to Ukraine in terms of military support?
European countries have done a lot for Ukraine, but they could obviously do much more. The important thing is to provide weapons now so that Ukraine can break the “stalemate” and win as soon as possible. Unfortunately, European reluctance for Ukraine to win decisively is achieving just the opposite of what Europe says it wants: more death and destruction, the continuation of the war and the persistence of the Russian threat to security.
