Since the spark of war broke out in Sudan in the middle of last April between the army commander, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo (Hamedti), the losses have been increasing daily, and the situation is approaching the brink of disaster.
The war has left hundreds dead and thousands injured, while about 75,000 people have been displaced to neighboring countries such as Egypt, Ethiopia, Chad and South Sudan, and countries around the world have continued to evacuate their nationals, while residents who are trying to flee or staying in their homes are suffering major crises in light of water and electricity cuts and food shortages. .
Here the question arises: What if the war in Sudan drags on?
The Egyptian expert and political analyst, Dr. Muhammad al-Yamani, answers to Al-Arabiya.net, saying that the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, is threatened by a terrible humanitarian catastrophe, after all its life and service facilities have become suspended and paralyzed, and the situation will worsen and deteriorate, especially in light of the government decision that was issued yesterday, Sunday, and announced In it, government employees are granted official leave from May 1 until further notice due to the security situation.
He added that this decision may exacerbate the crisis in a large city such as Khartoum, which is dying and needs urgent rescue and double efforts and services exceptionally and around the clock, and not let it breathe like this, indicating that evacuations and mass displacement from Sudan abroad have become the sole concern of the Sudanese state. Other than that.
He said that one of the repercussions of these conditions, according to what the international media reports, is the accumulation of piles of rotting waste and decomposing corpses dumped in the streets in an inhumane manner, which may lead to the spread of deadly Pandemics such as cholera, plague and other diseases, especially in the absence of hospitals, most of which are out of service. And the lack of medicine and the insufficiency of medical personnel qualified to deal with such imminent environmental, humanitarian and health disasters, explaining that the prolongation of the war may also result in fuel and food shortages, the disappearance of goods from the markets, and the impossibility of moving between the neighborhoods of the Sudanese capital and its suburbs.
And he continued that in light of the continuation of the war, Khartoum may turn into a deserted ghost town isolated from the outside world, and the tragedy may extend to other cities in the event that the clashes reach them and the battles spread to them, concluding by saying that Sudan is facing a difficult human ordeal that will extend and prolong.
In a related context, Dr. Khairy Omar, a political analyst, says that the war in general may actually drag on, especially if we know the true definition of the Rapid Support Forces and their relationship with the tribes in western Sudan, explaining to Al-Arabiya.net that the capabilities of the Rapid Support Forces lack the capabilities that qualify them to continue in the war. The war, however, may take another turn that may transfer the crisis to other regions within Sudan.
The Egyptian expert clarifies further and says that the Rapid Support Forces lack a command center to manage operations, especially after they left the Army Communications Department, and this explains their reliance on other communication networks, but with the passage of time this weakness will appear, which will make them resort to obtaining support and attribution. External to remain able and continuous on the ground operations.
He added that the Rapid Support Forces face two other problems, namely the ambiguity of its political project or its actual absence, and therefore some of its leaders’ pursuit of power through war is not accepted by the state or society, and the second is related to the fact that its establishment, which was by a decision of the state, deprived it of the social and popular support, especially after its participation. In the tragedies of Darfur in the past two decades, what leads to the stationing of these forces in Darfur and western Sudan and an attempt to entrench it with tribal support, which will eventually push for the increase in separatism and the exit of new regions from the body of the Sudanese state, similar to what happened in the south.
