Energy analyst at the research and consulting company “Economist Intelligence Unit”, Nicholas Daher, expected, in an interview with “Al-Arabiya”, that the demand for energy will witness weak growth during the current year.
Daher said, “We expect a growth of about 1% in global demand this year, as the war in Ukraine negatively affected this growth on the one hand, and the rise in energy prices in 2022. But on the other hand, we have some support for energy demand coming from the reopening of the economy.” In China earlier and faster than expected, so we have two contradictory factors affecting demand this year.
He added that it is difficult to talk about a winner in any war. But in the context of energy, the United States benefited, as did any energy producer, except for Russia, but Europe abandoned Russian fossil fuels and tried to find other suppliers, only to find a good partner in the United States. Thus, America’s exports are clearly increasing because it is filling the deficit left by Russia.
He explained that the war in Ukraine and the suspension of Russian fossil fuel supplies to Europe have shed light on energy security again, and we have seen many countries such as Germany and others in the European Union investing heavily in fossil energy. Especially in terms of building liquefied gas receiving capabilities, because the war reaffirmed that energy security should not be taken for granted.
He continued, “We believe that the current situation will accelerate the transformation in the medium and long term. Especially since many governments have begun to see renewable energies, not only in terms of their environmental benefits, but also as a source of enhancing their energy security, because they are produced locally. As you do not need To import the sun or the wind.”
Regarding the return of Russian gas to the European Union in the future, Daher said that Russia will remain an important producer of gas in the long term, despite the decrease in its production. But if there is a regime change in Russia, and European countries want to support it, we can see the return of Russian gas exports to the European Union, because the infrastructure is there, adding: “But we do not expect this to happen in the short or medium term.”
“We expect more investments in renewable energies, especially by European countries. But we also expect more investments in fossil fuel production. This is not only in response to balancing supply and demand, but also because current prices are high despite their decline from their peaks recorded last year. And high prices It has always been a catalyst for investments in fossil fuels,” Daher said.
He added, “We expect oil and gas market supplies to remain scarce until at least 2025. This will support investments in fossil fuel production.”
