Over the three weeks of November, the rate of vaccination in the Russian Federation has doubled compared to the previous month – today at least 400 thousand people are vaccinated per day. Such conclusions follow from the official statistics of the operational headquarters and data from the regions. By the weekend, the herd immunity level surpassed the 50% mark. Mortality rates in a number of regions – including those leading in the increase in vaccination rates – have dropped to single digits. However, in the country as a whole, it remains high. According to experts, in order to overcome the Pandemic, it is necessary to vaccinate at least 80%, and preferably 90% of the country’s adult population. If the current vaccination rate continues, herd immunity will be achieved by February.
Leaders and outsiders
For the fifth day in a row, more than 1,250 people have died from the coronavirus in Russia. In terms of negative indicators (morbidity and mortality), the Russian Federation may have just reached a plateau, so there is no talk of softening the regime of access to public premises. Government bills on the introduction of QR codes from February 1, 2022 for visiting public places, as well as for trips on intercity and international public transport, are undergoing the approval procedure in the State Duma.
At the same time, the incidence curve is slowly but going down. According to the headquarters data, as of November 21, 36,970 people fell ill in Russia (there were 250 more cases a day earlier), of which 6.7% are subjectively healthy – the virus was detected, but there are no clinical manifestations. In relative terms, the smallest increase in the number of cases over the past week is given by the republics of Kalmykia and Altai, Kamchatka Territory and Moscow – no more than 0.2%. The leaders in terms of vaccination rates are Magadan Region (+ 0.86% of new vaccinations per day), Primorsky Territory (+ 0.72%) and Crimea (+ 0.68%).
Photo: TASS / Maxim Kiselev
But there are other examples as well. In the Krasnodar Territory, starting from November 13, there is a noticeable increase in the number of new cases of the disease: from 350 to 989 per day. Mortality from coronavirus infection in the region increased from 48 to 69 people over the week, although it has remained almost unchanged over the previous three weeks. This fact in his Telegram channel was noted by the governor of the region, Veniamin Kondratyev. In addition to the existing measures, from Monday, November 22, and until January 18, 2022, the region will introduce a requirement to present QR codes when visiting shopping and entertainment complexes, while maintaining the existing restrictions on catering, non-food stores, swimming pools and fitness centers. At the same time, previously closed museums, theaters, cinemas and stadiums will resume their work – but only holders of QR codes will have access to these places.
At the same time, in Crimea, where there were also a lot of tourists in the autumn period, the statistics are not so depressing: morbidity and mortality are growing here within the general trend. As suggested in an interview with Izvestia, the chief researcher at the N.N. N.F. Gamalei Anatoly Altstein, the reason for the differences is in the practice of applying restrictive measures, when “anti-epidemiological measures are not carried out in the same way.”
New Year’s vaccination
On November 19, Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova named several more regions in which the situation has deteriorated over the week: these are the Altai Territory, the Kemerovo Region, and the Republic of Buryatia.
– Many are already thinking today how to spend the New Year holidays. And so that everything goes according to plan, an important point should be included in the preparation: get vaccinated against COVID-19, she stressed.
Photo: TASS / Alexander Demyanchuk
One should not expect uniform behavior even in an Pandemic from the Russians, because “after all, we are not China,” says Georgy Vikulov, head of the scientific information center for the prevention and treatment of viral infections.
“There are many opponents of vaccination in Russia, but we are working with this and see that the number of people who are vaccinated is increasing,” the scientist noted. – Therefore, I believe that by the New Year we will have a higher percentage of vaccinated.
While Russia is on the list of catching up countries in terms of vaccination rates, it is impossible to ignore the fact of a sharp increase in the number of vaccinated people, he stressed. For example, as the Ministry of Health of the Sverdlovsk Region told Izvestia, in the first half of November the number of vaccinated adults increased from 33.9% to 54.9%.
“The average number of citizens vaccinating per day has increased from 6 thousand to 15 thousand people,” the department added.
About the same proportions “Izvestia” was named in the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Suvashia and Khakaisia, Samara and other regions.
The Ministry of Health of the Perm Territory noted a significant decrease in the number of hospitalizations and the release of 35% of the bed capacity for patients with coronavirus.
“We associate this with the gradual creation of herd immunity in the region,” explained the Minister of Health of the Perm Territory Anastasia Kruten.
Photo: TASS / Dmitry Rogulin
Since November 8, the incidence has been slowly but steadily falling in the region.
In St. Petersburg, on November 19, for the fifth time in a row, the daily vaccination record was broken – 38,833 injections. These data were provided by the press service of the city health committee.
60 and 90
Judging by the data on the last working day of last week, the collective immunity of Russians exceeded 50%, Tatyana Golikova noted in this regard that in a number of regions it was already above 60%. If the adult population of the country maintains the same rate of vaccination, then, according to experts, we will be able to achieve herd immunity in two to two and a half months.
Infectious disease doctor, Doctor of Medical Sciences Nikolai Malyshev considers this forecast to be too optimistic.
“Until now, half of people over 60 have not been vaccinated, and all people of this age have a significant number of concomitant diseases,” the doctor said.
Photo: TASS / Dmitry Rogulin
Mandatory vaccination of older people (and this is a risk group for COVID-19) has been announced in many regions, but incentive mechanisms are needed – blocking social cards, as in Moscow, is not enough, the expert said.
“The number of people with immunity is now about 50%, but this is a general statistic, which includes those who have been revaccinated,” he said. – The formation of the required level of herd immunity is still very far away, so the morbidity figures remain high.
Nikolai Malyshev is convinced that it is necessary to focus on the indicator of 90%. It is these values of herd immunity that made it possible to defeat measles and diphtheria, he recalled.