In the OSAGO segment, insurance premiums in 2023 will exceed 300 billion rubles for the first time, and their final volume will determine the size of the average insurance premium, which is expected to remain at the level of November-December 2022. This forecast was made on January 16 by the National Credit Ratings (NKR) agency.
The forecast was based on the results of the 4th quarter of 2022, when the CMTPL market saw an increase in the average premium and average payment. At the same time, the trend towards an increase in the average premium manifested itself at the beginning of 2022 due to the predicted change in the average cost of spare parts, materials and labor hours in reference books for calculating insurance payments. The most significant change occurred in June last year, reflecting the situation that has developed after the departure of a number of automakers from Russia.
Compared to March 2022, the cost of a weighted basket of the most in-demand auto parts increased by 29%. These changes offset higher market prices for spare parts and led to an increase in insurance premiums in subsequent months.
In September 2022, the Bank of Russia expanded the tariff corridor and continued its consistent policy aimed at maintaining the market in a state of equilibrium and individualizing the cost of insurance for each driver, taking into account the personal level of risk. Motor insurers noted that the system of insurance indemnity limits in OSAGO needs to be revised, since it does not allow to fully compensate for damage from the consequences of an accident.
On January 16, it became known that against the backdrop of a shortage of auto parts and a significant increase in the delivery time of parts, insurance companies almost stopped repairing cars under OSAGO. By the end of 2022, the share of compensation in the form of repairs in the market approached 0%, although in the first months of 2022 it was 9-11%, the Russian Union of Motor Insurers (RSA) reported. With a cash payment in the face of an increase in the price of spare parts, customers often face the fact that the amount is not enough to carry out a full repair.
