The High Commission for Planning expected that the gross domestic product (GDP) would grow by 3.6 percent in 2024, based on the evolution of taxes and fees on products net of subsidies of 4.1 percent.
In the forward-looking economic budget for the year 2024, the delegate stated that the economic prospects for the coming year depend on a set of assumptions related mainly to the recovery of the global economy, which will lead to an improvement in the growth of foreign demand directed towards Morocco and a decline in commodity prices at the global level.
She added that these expectations are based on an average scenario for grain production during the 2023/2024 agricultural season and the approach of the same fiscal policy adopted during the year 2023.
And she highlighted that the agricultural sector will increase by 8.3 percent in 2024 instead of 6.7 percent in 2023, supported by the strengthening of agricultural production and the expected recovery of livestock activities.
For its part, the growth rate of nonagricultural activities will stabilize at 2.9 percent in 2024.
The secondary sector will witness a revival in its dynamism, as a result of the improvement in the activities of the minerals and energy sector, as well as the activities of the manufacturing industries and the construction and public works sector. Thus, its added value will register an increase of 2 percent in 2024, instead of 0.3 percent in 2023.
The minerals sector, which has recorded not good results since 2022, will see an increase in its added value by 1.6 percent in 2024 instead of a decrease of 4.2 percent in 2023. Its activities will benefit from the improvement in external demand, especially from India and Brazil, in The horizon of the expected decline in the prices of phosphate and its derivatives at the international level.
With regard to the construction and public works sector, the growth rate of its added value will increase to exceed that estimated in 2023, benefiting from the expected decline in the prices of building materials, the strengthening of public investment and the measures related to supporting the acquisition of housing units.
Marketing services, supported by the recovery of domestic demand, will grow at a rate of 3.1 percent in 2024, mainly as a result of the promotion of good results for the activities of the tourism, trade and transport sectors, as well as the improvement of financial activities.
The air transport sector, which is related to tourism activities, will continue to record a sustained growth rate in 2024.
Maritime transport will also benefit from the dynamism of foreign trade, especially the expected recovery in phosphate exports and its derivatives.
For its part, the activities of the trade sector will record good results in 2024, benefiting from the increase in domestic demand, the continued improvement in the performance of the national productive fabric, and the slowdown in inflation, as its growth rate will reach about 1.8 percent in 2024.
The delegate expected that, at current prices, the gross domestic product would increase by 5.5 percent instead of 6.2 percent in 2023, noting that inflation, measured by the implicit indicator of gross domestic product, would slow down to settle at 1.8 percent in 2024. .
The High Commission for Planning is preparing the forward-looking economic budget for the year 2024, which provides a review of the national economic growth for the year 2023, as well as prospects for its development during the year 2024. This budget will enable the government and decision-makers, through the expected economic development for the year 2024, to underline the directions of their policies, as it constitutes a framework A reference for setting economic goals, supported by measures to be implemented, especially within the framework of the financial law for the year 2024.
The preparation of this economic budget is based on indicators and interim data for the year 2022 issued by the National Accounting and on the results of quarterly research and situational tracking and analysis works carried out by the High Commissioner for Planning during the first half of the year 2023. These projections are also based on a set of assumptions related to the development of external factors that affect on the Moroccan economy, both nationally and globally.
The economic prospects for the year 2024 depend on an average scenario for grain production during the 2023-2024 agricultural season and on the assumption of the same fiscal policy approach adopted during the year 2023, especially the public policies that must be implemented to achieve economic take-off.
