Electoral polls in Argentina corroborate the trend of polarization in the country and indicate a second round between the ultraliberal Javier Milei and the Peronist Sergio Massa, the name of Alberto Fernández’s government.
The scenario is designed based on at least five surveys released in the last two weeks, shortly after Argentines were surprised by the result of the Paso, the primary elections.
The vote, which does not elect anyone and serves only to define the candidates for the first round, on October 22, did not confirm the expectations of the opinion polls and raised Milei to the lead, with 30% of the votes in a single candidacy of her plate, Freedom Advances. Behind him came Massa, chosen by 21.4% of voters, and then Patricia Bullrich, with 17% of the vote.
Unlike the Peronist, the former security minister had a competitive adversary within her alliance, the head of the Buenos Aires government, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta. Adding the two alternatives from the traditional right, the Juntos por el Cambio coalition won second place, with 28.3% of the votes.
Such a situation fueled expectations of a transfer of votes to Bullrich, which would remove Massa from a second round. However, according to published research, this may not happen.
In a survey commissioned by Massa’s alliance, União pela Pátria, the consultant Analogías shows that Milei would win a place in the second round with 32.1% of the votes. He would start in front of the Peronist, who would be the choice of 26.8%. In third place would come Bullrich, with 20.9% —a configuration similar to the Paso result. The margin of error for the numbers, based on 2,523 telephone interviews conducted between Aug. 18 and Aug. 21, is plus or minus two percentage points.
The Opinaia poll indicates a similar pattern: Milei leads with 35% of the voting intentions and is followed by Massa, with 25%, and Bullrich, with 23%. The difference in relation to the Analogías survey is that the second and third places are technically tied in the margin of error, of 2.2%.
The survey, based on an online survey of 2,000 interviews conducted between August 15 and 23, gives Bullrich hope of winning a spot in the second round to the detriment of Massa.
The OPSA survey (Observatory of Applied Social Psychology of the Faculty of Psychology of the University of Buenos Aires), in turn, gives Milei an even higher percentage of votes: 38.5%. Massa appears with 32.3%, and Bullrich, far behind, with 23.7%. The survey, which analyzed 4,623 responses given over the internet on August 16 and 17, has a margin of error of 1.4 percentage points.
There is, however, a particularity — the researchers in this poll only interview those who voted for the Paso. Although it is efficient to measure migration and retention of votes, the study does not capture the 2 million voters who usually vote in the first round without attending the primaries, according to the Clarín newspaper.
Candidates can win in the first round if they obtain more than 45% of the votes or, alternatively, more than 40%, provided that the difference to the second place is greater than ten percentage points.
In any case, the surveys need to be read with caution. Although they managed to capture a growth in the Milei phenomenon, an economist who promises to end the Central Bank of Argentina and has already defended the commercialization of human organs, the institutes pointed to a weakening of the candidate close to the primaries. None of them projected their leadership into the Paso.
In addition, Argentina is experiencing economic instability, which makes public opinion more volatile. With an eye on the dissatisfaction of Argentines, Massa, who is Minister of Economy, announced on Sunday measures to try to strengthen consumption, limit the impact of the devaluation of the peso and face inflation. Initiatives include tax breaks and payment of extraordinary bonuses to workers and retirees.
“The central objective is that each of the sectors of the economy has, in some way, the support of the State”, explained the government candidate in his Instagram profile.
