For decades Russia had been pumping arms to China and sent $2 billion worth of equipment every year between 2001 and 2010, with a $7 billion worth of deal in 2015. Now things are upside down as Russia has lost more than 9,400 pieces of equipment including more than 1,500. A tank, during the war in Ukraine and now badly short of ammunition.
America says it has intelligence indicating that China is considering supplying weapons to Russia. This possibility could change the course of the war, and it would lead to a deeper crisis in China’s relationship with America and Europe, according to the report of the “Economist” magazine.
Russia has asked China for weapons since the first months of the war. China objected frequently and only sent non-lethal aid such as helmets and dual-use items such as aircraft parts.
US officials have not publicly disclosed details of what they think China is thinking. But on February 23, German magazine Der Spiegel claimed that the Russian armed forces were negotiating with Chinese company Xi’an Bingo Intelligent Aviation Technology for the purchase of 100 attack drones. Russia has used such drones on the front lines as part of strikes on Ukraine’s power grid.
Send artillery shells
A day after the “Der Spiegel” report, the “Washington Post” newspaper quoted US officials as saying that China is considering sending artillery shells, which are the most deadly weapons in the war. Russia and Ukraine use 122 mm and 152 mm Soviet missiles, and they have traveled the world in search of old missiles. Belarus has run out of stocks, while North Korea has provided some supplies but fears depleting its arsenal.
According to the report, China has what Russia is looking for, which are missiles that are compatible with Russian guns. Little is known about the size and quality of its stockpiles, says Lonnie Henley, formerly of the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency, but they would certainly be enough to stave off Russia’s impending crisis, because that would make all the difference in a conflict where attrition is a critical factor. .
From the battles in Ukraine
The report indicated that China has the weight to turn the scales, as it is the fourth largest exporter of weapons in the world. Eight of its subsidiaries appeared in the latest ranking of the 100 best arms companies in the world compiled by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, with seven companies in the top 20. It is second only to America. In recent years, the sales of the largest Chinese companies have grown significantly.
The war may also provide China with an opportunity to reset and rebalance its defense relationship with Russia. For many years, China has imported Russian military technology. Between 2017 and 2021, 81 percent of its defense imports came from Russia, including engines for China’s latest stealth fighters.
Now it has a chance to become a “relative industrial partner of the Russian defense industry”, says Michael Raska of the S Rajaratnam Institute of International Studies in Singapore. Rather than simply sending essential equipment, China could help Russia circumvent Western sanctions by sending high-tech components for drones, cruise missiles, and other precision weapons.
In return, Raska notes, China might want the technology of the RD-180, a Russian rocket engine used to launch space rockets (and possibly ballistic missiles), and submarine and jet engine technology would also be attractive weight.
Chinese anger at Russia
But the Chinese leadership is hesitant, although it does not want to see Russia humiliated on the battlefield at the hands of American missile launchers and European tanks. A few weeks before the outbreak of the war, Russia and China celebrated their “unlimited” friendship. Some in Beijing may also like the idea of American involvement in the conflict in Europe, far from the Indian and Pacific oceans.
But there are reasons for restraint from China’s anger at the Kremlin, because America has picked up and publicized discussions about arms sales, according to a European official familiar with the matter. China wanted any support to remain a secret, as it knew that supporting Russia’s operation would drop its claim that it is a neutral mediator, and would further poison the relationship with America and provoke violent reactions in Europe. For now, China is on the side of caution.
