After Iowa, can we take Donald Trump’s nomination for granted?
Not 100%, because he is a 77-year-old man, overweight and who doesn’t exercise much. But barring one unusual development, the Republican race is basically over.
What chances do Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley have of making a comeback in the New Hampshire primary?
Haley seems to be doing moderately well in the polls there, DeSantis not so much. Haley trails Trump in her own state, South Carolina, where she was a popular governor. DeSantis and Haley can hold out until New Hampshire, but they’ll probably drop out soon after (if they last that long, DeSantis is having trouble raising money). Vivek Ramaswamey, who never had a chance, but was quite funny, abandoned this msena.
The demographics of Trump voters in Iowa have been very diverse and he appears to still have a very strong base despite his judgments…
Remember we’re talking about registered Republicans, who are now about 25% of the national electorate. (Democrats are about the same, while almost 50% of voters refuse to formally affiliate with either party.) Among Republicans, Trump has completely triumphed. Some compare his popularity there to that of a religious cult.
To what extent are the lawsuits and media attention benefiting you?
The lawsuits have absolutely helped him among Republicans. They see the lawsuits as evidence of persecution by elites and partisan enemies. The big question for the future is the response of the independents. I’d bet the convictions will hurt Trump among independents, but we won’t know if that’s really true for a while.
Do Trump voters somehow feel like they are being persecuted by the Justice Department and the Biden Administration?
They absolutely believe it. Regarding the lawsuit filed by the New York State Government, they may be right. That lawsuit is for lying to banks, insurance companies and investors. Trump’s defense was: “Everyone does it.” There is some truth in that. But few companies are sued for it.
Is Biden in a position to withstand the Trump earthquake?
No one can say for sure what the world will be like in November 2024. So many things can happen! But, I’ve been asking my political and political science friends what they think the odds of a Trump victory are. The highest I’ve heard is 60%. The lowest is 30%. Betting markets are showing around 40% (with 40% for Biden and 10% for others – remember – a tragic event can happen). It seems reasonable to me.