The outbreak of military clashes in Sudan has increased its economic pain and suffering in terms of providing basic commodities to citizens in light of record high levels of inflation.
Sudan is currently witnessing violent confrontations between the army forces and the Rapid Support Forces, in a battle that has not yet been resolved, and warns of a dark future for the African country. On Monday morning, violent clashes and exchanges of fire continued in the vicinity of the General Command of the Armed Forces in Khartoum, for the third day in a row since the fighting broke out last Saturday.
The Sudanese economy faces uncertainty about future growth prospects in light of the escalating crises inside the country.
The International Monetary Fund’s forecasts for economic growth in Sudan indicated 1.2% in 2023, after a contraction of 2.5% in the previous year, but these expectations were before the outbreak of the recent clashes.
Continuous risks
The World Bank Group said, in a statement today, Monday, that “our thoughts are equal with the people of Sudan, who are once again facing conflict alongside the constant risks of natural disasters and economic pressures … and we hope for a speedy resolution of the situation in the country.”
According to World Bank estimates, Sudan is one of the poorest countries in the world, a country with a population of more than 45 million that has suffered from conflict, instability, and economic isolation for almost all of its history since 1956.
The suspension of payments by the World Bank in all its operations to the Government of Sudan as of October 25, 2021 remains in effect. At the same time, the international community is concerned about the growing food insecurity and humanitarian risks in the country and is working with the World Bank to find a way to meet the urgent needs of the Sudanese people.
Under pressure from the international community, the World Bank signed an agreement with the United Nations World Food Program to provide direct funding to the World Food Program in the amount of $100 million for a new emergency safety net project in Sudan. The project responds to severe food insecurity in Sudan caused by a poor harvest and high global food prices. The project aims to provide cash transfers and food to more than 2 million food insecure beneficiaries in 11 states in Sudan based on a vulnerability assessment conducted by the World Food Programme.
The continuation of the raging military clashes would disrupt the work of the World Food Program and harm millions of Sudanese.
hunger levels
In addition, relief agencies have warned of high levels of hunger in Sudan, where more than a third of the population suffered from acute food insecurity last year.
Recently, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) said that Sudan will need to import 3.5 million tons of wheat this year due to expectations that its domestic crop will decline by 30% after farmers switched to crops other than wheat.
In a statement, the FAO expected Sudan’s production of sorghum, which is a staple food in the country, to recover, and of white corn, thanks to the heavy rains.
She added that Sudan’s expected imports of wheat would constitute almost all of the country’s requirements of imported grain, amounting to 3.6 million tons.
“This will have a significant impact on the food security of millions of Sudanese, with the continued rise in global wheat prices and the weakness of the country’s local currency,” the statement added.
Central bank data showed that Sudan imported 2.7 million tons of wheat and flour last year, at a cost of $1.06 billion. Russia, Australia and Romania topped the list of exporting countries.
difficult procedures
In recent years, Sudan began to take difficult measures while it was waiting to reap its burdens in the year 2023.
The measures included what the Sudanese government did in 2022 when it finally lifted fuel subsidies as part of economic reforms agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund, which included liberalizing the local currency. Since the secession of South Sudan in 2011, Sudan’s oil production has declined, prompting it to import more than 60% of its fuel needs.
The devaluation of the Sudanese pound was also one of the most prominent and difficult steps taken by the country as part of a series of reforms implemented by a civilian transitional government under the supervision of the International Monetary Fund.
economic shocks
The secession of South Sudan in 2011 led to multiple economic shocks, including the loss of oil revenues, which accounted for more than half of the Sudanese government’s revenues and 95 percent of its exports. This reduced economic growth and led to double-digit consumer price inflation which, along with higher fuel prices, sparked violent protests in September 2013.
Rising prices
The annual inflation rate in Sudan declined to 63.3% last February from 83% in January, according to data from Sudan’s Central Statistical Organization.
This is a continuation of the decline in the annual inflation rate in Sudan during the past months, after it exceeded 400% in June 2021.
The relentless rise in food prices and protracted unrest over more than 30 years of rule led to mass demonstrations that began in December 2018 and culminated in the ousting of then President Omar Hassan al-Bashir from power in April 2019.
This was followed by the formation of a transitional government in September 2019 that implemented ambitious economic and social reforms and engaged in peace negotiations with armed groups to address conflicts and grievances across the country. This led to the signing of the Juba Peace Agreement with almost all armed opposition groups in October 2020.
In October 2021, a military coup took place in which key government structures were dissolved and provisions of the 2019 Constitutional Pact were suspended.
In early January 2022, the prime minister resigned after his efforts to reach a political settlement among local stakeholders failed. And in December 2022, a Political Framework Agreement (PFA) was signed, between the military and a number of political parties, in an effort to re-launch the country’s transition to civilian government within two years.
The second phase of the political process was launched in January 2023, with the aim of reaching consensus on key issues and inviting non-signatories to join the process, until the recent bloody clashes between the army and the RSF left the country on the brink of complete collapse and wasting years of reform.
Markets closed
After the outbreak of the ongoing clashes last Saturday morning, many Sudanese citizens resorted to buying large quantities of commodities, especially flour (flour), onions and oil, and storing them in anticipation of what the coming days hold and the possibility that the armed clashes will prolong, which creates a scarcity of commodities in the shops.
The major markets in the capital, such as the central market south of Khartoum, Bahri, Omdurman, and the Arab market, were also closed, which is the first source for feeding small markets and shops in neighborhoods with consumer goods, vegetables and fruits.
