The Central Bank (CB) predicts that in the second quarter of 2023, GDP growth will be 4.2% after a decline of 2.3% in the first quarter. At the same time, the main driving force of the economy this year will be domestic demand. This is stated in the report of the Central Bank on monetary policy published on May 11.
As noted in the document, a higher level of consumer and investment activity in the first quarter of this year, as well as a low unemployment rate, can improve the forecast for GDP growth rates in 2023 to 0.5-2.0%.
According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, the economy will continue to recover next year. It is expected that by the end of 2024 it will return to the level of the fourth quarter of 2021. The Central Bank clarifies that in 2024 growth will be supported by investments made in 2022 and 2023. Currently, investment activity, according to the regulator, is at the level of 2021, which is slightly higher than in 2018-2019.
The main part of the “expensive adaptation processes” will be completed in 2025. By this time, the dynamics of GDP will stabilize in the range of 1.5–2.5%.
Earlier, on May 7, it was reported that, according to the World Bank and national statistical services, the Russian economy for the first time since 2014 returned to the top ten largest in the world. At the end of last year, Russia produced goods and services worth $2.3 trillion, which corresponds to the eighth place in the rating. In 2014, with a GDP of $ 2.05 trillion, Russia ranked ninth, in 2021 – 11th.
On May 4, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov, at a meeting with Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin, said that the forecast for Russia’s GDP growth in 2023 at the level of 1.2% is rather conservative, in fact this figure may be higher.
On the same day, the head of state noted that the inflation rate and the state debt situation in the country are better than in a number of other states – 14.9%. For comparison, he recalled that in the United States the public debt is 121.7%, in the eurozone – 90.9%, in Germany – 66.5%, in France – 111.1%.
