In 2023, Russia’s GDP will continue to decline, expects Alina Rozentsvet, CEO of the National Rating Agency (NRA). In an interview with Izvestia, she clarified that in the first half of the year its decline will be 4-6%.
“By the middle of the year, in our opinion, the end point of this decline will be reached, then the start of economic recovery is possible. But all this is possible under a large number of conditions, the key of which is to overcome the shock associated with a possible drop in oil production. At the end of 2023, we expect a decline in GDP at the level of 2.5–3%,” Alina Rozentsvet emphasized.
According to her estimates, inflation-adjusted GDP will be able to return to 2021 levels no earlier than 2025. The restructuring of the economy and finding new suppliers and buyers will require considerable time, the expert stressed.
“The loss of key energy export markets – the US and the EU, as well as price ceilings and other restrictive measures, will also significantly affect the volume of GDP. However, in our opinion, numbers are not the main thing here. The main thing is to ensure the sustainable operation of the economy for the next two to three years and set a long-term, strategic vector for its development in order to overcome technological backwardness and ensure sustainable development for the benefit of future generations,” the NRA Director General said.
Read more in an exclusive interview with Alina Rozentsvet to Izvestia:
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