It is difficult to imagine the thoughts that went through Yevgeny Prigozhin’s head on his way to the Belarusian exile that he himself chose. Remembering the little resistance that his men encountered when they were heading to Moscow, he still fantasized about the idea of having achieved what no one could before, reaching the very gates of the Kremlin and asking Vladimir Putin to account. That peterburguese petty thief who hardened himself in the prisons of the Soviet Union will see his name in the history books, along with that of Napoleon and Hitler, whose goal of reaching Moscow also fell by the wayside.
Meanwhile, Putin breathes calmly, or not so much, knowing that the iron hand that everyone assumed has lost part of its hardness. It was not an easy day for the Russian president, who experienced a double betrayal. That of a friend he trusted and that of a military man who put the security of one of the most controlled countries in the world in check. The Kremlin chief, with the valuable help of his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, diluted without bloodshed what could have been the start of an armed rebellion, sparing the country a civil war for which it was not prepared. No one will think about that, but about the weakness shown by this leader who in his 23 years in power had not faced anything similar.
The last coup attempt experienced by Russia, almost 30 years ago, reinforced the figure of the then president, Boris Yeltsin. What happened on Saturday has only shown the weaknesses of a regime that is still mired in a war devised by its hawks, those whom the head of the Wagner group blamed for giving the president a distorted vision of what is going on on the other side of the border.
The Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, pointed out on numerous occasions by Prigozhin as the main person responsible for the traffic jam in Ukraine, is left in an uncomfortable situation. He could disappear from the government organization chart, but this would mean a moral victory for Prigozhin, acknowledging with this replacement the mistake of having chosen him for a position that, according to critical voices, was too big for him. With the head of the Wagner group out of circulation, Shoigu should have more freedom to assume responsibilities on the battlefield, although it is not known if he will be able to have them even if he does not move from office.
As soon as Prigozhin’s departure to Belarus was confirmed, the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, He stated that the possibility of making adjustments in the Ministry of Defense “was in the hands of the Russian president” and “it was unlikely” that such details would have been discussed to quell the insurgency. The points of that agreement that closed one of the most bitter days of modern Russia, trying to turn the page in the fastest way to focus on the “special operation” will not be disclosed.
Surely, Prigozhin will remain in Belarus before leaving for an unknown destination, knowing that his military project will end up swallowed up by the Kremlin and its soldiers will become part of the Russian Ministry of Defense. In exchange, they will receive a presidential pardon because their role at the front remains crucial to Moscow’s interests. The fine print of what is signed will always be a mystery.
The vehicles of the Wagner group had already withdrawn this afternoon almost entirely from the cities of Rostov, Lipetsk and Voronezhlistening to more compliments than insults from the population during his farewell and Moscow eliminated the restrictions imposed while tlittle by little everything seems to return to normal. It remains to be seen if what happened this Saturday is a stain on Putin’s presidential term or the germ that encourages new insurgencies encouraged by the absence of punishment after it occurred.
The Russian oligarch and opponent Mikhail Khodorkovsky, at the time the richest man in the country and who now lives in exile in the United Kingdom after having spent time in several Russian prisons, lamented yesterday the failure of the Wagner uprising, stating that the opportunity to a change of government in Russia, calling to be Prepared for new riots.
