Moscow (EFE) except in Russia and Ukraine, of this private military company with tentacles in Africa and the East.
These are the keys that are known at the moment:
Where is the head of the Wagner Group?
Since he was photographed and filmed in his vehicle leaving the southern city of Rostov-on-Don after taking it with his men for 24 hours, nothing has been heard from him.
Nor has his press service from another company of his, Concord, heard from him. On Sunday, he told Russian-language international television station RTVI that his boss “is not in contact yet” and that he “will answer questions when he is in (a situation where he can establish) normal communication.” .
The agreement reached between him and the Kremlin under the mediation of the Belarusian president, Alexandr Lukashenko, establishes that Prigozhin would go into exile in Belarus without being criminally prosecuted for organizing the armed rebellion, as revealed by the Kremlin.
However, the case opened on Friday night by the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office under article 279 of the Criminal Code – which provides for a sentence of between 12 and 20 years in prison – is still open, according to the Kommersant newspaper.
Where are the mercenaries?
It is unknown at this time where the mercenaries who revolted are located. Prigozhin only announced on Saturday that they were withdrawing “to their bases” and deployment points, many of which have so far been in Ukraine.
What does the agreement with the Kremlin provide for them?
Security guarantees that they will not be persecuted by Russian justice either. The mercenaries who did not participate “directly” in the uprising will be able to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense, which will subordinate themselves to the command of the minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the chief of the General Staff, Valeri Gerasimov.
Hadn’t the mercenaries asked for the head of the military leadership?
Yes, Prigozhin had said that he would not surrender until he “had in his power” Shoigu and Gerasimov, whom he holds responsible for the “chaos” in Ukraine and the death of some “100,000 Russian soldiers” at the front for their lack of leadership.
The confrontation between Wagner’s chief and the military command had been escalating for months, but the straw that broke the camel’s back was the alleged missile attack by Russian forces against a mercenary camp in the rear in Ukraine.
Now many military analysts and bloggers are now wondering if the agreement reached between the Kremlin and Wagner will lead to the dismissal of Shoigu or Gerasimov in the coming days.
As far as is known, Shoigu remains in the post. The visit he made to the front that he publicized today his ministry wants to convey this message, although it is actually unknown if the trip was made before or after the Wagnerite mutiny.
So what do mercenaries gain from this deal?
For now, they have saved his life and his professional future without having to spend up to 20 years behind bars.
What does the Kremlin gain?
In addition to aborting an uprising with unforeseeable consequences for the power structure and for the security of citizens, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Shoigu have managed to subdue the Wagnerites, the most powerful and dangerous outlaw armed group, and force them to subordinate to Defense.
In June they ordered that all “volunteer” units in Russia must sign contracts with the ministry until July 1, something Prigozhin had flatly refused to do.
In addition, Putin has “disarmed” a person who started a struggle between powers and who increasingly challenged him, despite never having recognized political ambitions.
What does the agreement mean for the future of the Group?
That the Wagner Group as such will be dismantled, at least in Russia and Ukraine, where it was present when the conflict in Donbas broke out in 2014 and again in the current war in this country started by Russia in February 2022.
Several of the mercenaries’ social networks on VKontakte, Russia’s Facebook were blocked on Saturday, billboards across Russia to recruit fighters were dismantled, and their marketing products were removed from e-commerce.
Private military companies are illegal in Russia, although others have sprung up in the country as a result of the war in Ukraine, but they acted in the shadows as the Kremlin’s armed spleen abroad.
What will happen to mercenaries in Africa and the Middle East?
It is one of the great unknowns, although in principle they could continue to operate on other continents if the Kremlin so wishes, since they act where Putin cannot officially send forces, so in this sense the services of mercenaries are useful.
The Wagnerites have been in Syria and have a presence in a number of other countries, from the Central African Republic to Mali, Libya and Sudan, although Prigozhin recently denied they were in the latter country.
In those countries, mercenaries train forces, protect natural resources – which are also exploited by firms associated with Wagner, according to the West – and fight in support of armed rebels or jihadists.
