Japan has become a major Asian military force by passing a defense budget increase and changing its non-intervention doctrine. Are the Asian powers, including Australia, preparing for war against China?
In fact, Japan and Australia have significantly expanded their military capabilities in recent years and will continue to do so in the future. Several other Asian powers, such as South Korea, Indonesia, and Singapore, also continue to invest heavily in their military might. However, it is very rare for a country to explicitly state that its military power is directed at some other specific country, because that would be counterproductive to its own security. But in the case of Japan in particular, and to a lesser extent Australia, it is quite reasonable to assume that China is the main reason for expanding military capabilities.
Who will give in first in the current European war, Russia or Ukraine? What is the probability of a US military deployment on Ukrainian soil?
Ukraine will never surrender unless it is defeated militarily on the ground and has no other choice. But given the very poor performance of the Russian army so far, the probability of such a colossal Ukrainian military defeat is very low. So the question is only whether the Russian side ever reaches the point where its costs in the war are no longer worth its benefits. The probability of a US military presence in Ukraine is extremely low, unless Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, in which case the probability increases dramatically.
Will the European Union be able to emerge as a third pole, as Macron suggested a few days ago?
My short answer is an emphatic ‘no’. The EU is an international organization and NOT a sovereign state. For the EU to ever become a power on the world stage, it has to move from being an international organization to a unified sovereign state. But that is not something that most members of the current EU are willing to accept. But of course, for France, the whole reason for the existence of the EU is to make it possible for France to play a bigger role in the world than France could play on its own. The EU is simply a means to a self-centered end for France.