In Argentina, there is a concept called Baglini’s Theorem, which says that the degree of responsibility of a candidate’s proposals is directly proportional to his chances of coming to power. In other words: the further away you are from command, the more irresponsible your political speeches are; the closer they are, the more sensible they become.
According to Argentine economist Ignacio Galará, from the Center for Monetary and Financial Studies in Madrid, the theory applies precisely to the most recent changes in the tone of the ultra-liberal Javier Milei, who in a few years went from anti-system commentator to federal deputy and now the favorite to the Presidency.
After achieving a surprising result in the primary elections a month ago, the shaggy-haired deputy, and especially his advisors, began to soften certain promises such as the dollarization of the economy, the elimination of the Central Bank and the abandonment of Mercosur, in an attempt to raise your vote ceiling and calm the markets.
Anarcho-capitalist and radical ideas, however, are still there and continue to generate fear among part of the Argentine population, serving as ammunition for the “crazy” image that their opponents try to create. They are Sergio Massa, current Minister of Economy for Peronism, and Patricia Bullrich, hard-line candidate for the right-wing alliance Juntos por el Cambio.
The three political forces gathered basically a third of the votes each in August — in a vote that does not elect anyone, but serves to measure the temperature until the first round, on October 22nd. Milei, however, surprised by overcoming the two traditional groups and painting the map for the first time with the colors of his A Liberdade Avança coalition, garnering mainly the protest vote.
Now, the economist appears in first place in several electoral polls, which indicate a second round against the ruling Massa. Therefore, in addition to the undecided voters, he has tried to capture the more centrist voter who voted for the Peronist and also for Horacio Larreta, head of government of Buenos Aires who ended up out of the race.
The greatest moderation has been the responsibility of his close advisors. Economist Darío Epstein generated a stir when he said last week, at an event run by the Clarín newspaper, that “Javier Milei has a very concrete dollarization proposal. So concrete that we will not dollarize if there are no dollars”, adding that “the most important thing is not to there is a fiscal deficit.”
The libertarian’s main banner is to replace the devalued Argentine pesos with the American dollar on the streets, through a system of free competition between currencies, but the central criticism of this is that the country does not have sufficient reserves of foreign money, which its advisor ended up admitting it.
After dollarizing, the idea would be to “dynamite” the Central Bank, a word that has disappeared from Milei’s vocabulary in recent times. “What I understand as eliminating the Central Bank is the function of monetary policy. I see it as regulation, which does not mean that we want to eliminate it,” said candidate for senator Juan Nápoli, responsible for campaign ties recently. with the financial sector, on El Observador radio.
The two economists from the candidate’s team traveled to New York this week to talk to around 60 bankers and investors and reduce distrust in Wall Street. After the primaries, Milei himself had also tried to appease directors of the IMF (International Monetary Fund), to whom Argentina owes the largest amount ever lent by the body.
“A Milei who in 2016 had a very combative speech against the system, today is close to being part of the political elite and in need of that same system. He will not only have to negotiate with the traditional politics that he repudiates, but also with the business community, media, unions. You will invariably have to moderate yourself”, says researcher Galará.
He cites other even more controversial topics that the ultraliberal had already left aside in recent months, such as the liberalization of the sale of organs — “an additional market”, as he stated in mid-2022 — and even children. “It depends,” he responded at the time when asked if he was in favor of the latest measure, adding that “if I had a son, I wouldn’t sell him.”
“When Milei stops talking about these issues, including the sale of weapons, his image begins to improve until the primaries. He stops touching on extremely controversial topics, but continues to maintain an aggressive tone against traditional politics”, says the political scientist Paola Zuban, co-founder of the research company Zuban Córdoba e Associados.
She, however, says she does not believe that the candidate has changed that much after winning the preliminary elections. “In terms of form, yes, he has softened his convictions a little about the proposals and the speed with which he intends to apply them. But he continues to speak very oppositionally, and is more discursively empowered”, she says.
A sign of this is that, three days after the primaries, the libertarian told the Bloomberg News agency that, if he becomes president, he will leave Mercosur, a “defective customs union”, in his words. “Our geopolitical alignment is with the US and Israel […] We will not align ourselves with communists”, he also declared when rejecting Argentina’s recent entry into the Brics (today with Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).
Ten days later, his possible future chancellor, fellow economist Diana Mondino, put the statements into perspective and said that, if Milei is elected, “in no way” will Argentina stop doing business with China or Mercosur, its main trading partners. of the neighboring nation.
“We need to deepen and modify the relationship 100%. […] In many cases, countries [do Mercosul] they produce the same thing and we don’t sell it to each other, but to the world. A kilo of meat from country A is equal to a kilo from country B, which is not sold, and there is price competition to sell abroad”, she said at the Clarín event.
On the Brazilian side, there is a certain extent to this possibility of moderation, but the general climate is still one of profound uncertainty.
“Milei’s own team has different opinions on some issues, so it is not known what measures he will take until he defines his Economy Minister and goes through the elections”, says Zuban.
