The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US. decreased by 0.7% in September 2023 to 104.6, after a fall of 0.5%. The LEI is down 3.4% over the 6-month period between March and September 2023, an improvement over its 4.6% contraction over the previous 6 months (September 2022 to March 2023).
“US LEI fell again in Septembermarking a year and a half of consecutive monthly declines since April 2022,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board.
“In September, negative or flat contributions from 9 of the 10 index components more than offset lower initial claims for unemployment insurance. Although the semi-annual growth rate of the LEI is somewhat less negative and the recession signal did not sound, it still indicates risk of economic weakness in the future”added Zabinska-La Monica.
The Conference Board, the nonpartisan think tank that provides insight into what’s to come, notes that so far, the U.S. economy has shown considerable resilience despite the pressures of the rising interest rates and high inflation.
However, he predicts that this trend will not continue for much longer and there is likely to be a shallow recession in the first half of 2024.
The Conference Board’s Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the US. increased by 0.3% in September 2023 to 110.9, after a 0.1% increase in August. The CEI is now up 1.1% over the 6-month period from March to September 2023, compared to 0.4% growth over the previous 6 months.
For its part, the Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for US improved 0.2% in September 2023 to 118.5, but remains unchanged from last month. LAG has increased slightly by 0.1% over the 6-month period March to September 2023, substantially less than its 1.2% growth over the previous 6 months.
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