2024 arrived; year that begins with a taste of political uncertainty for Venezuelans and with the desire to finally achieve political change, which goes through several scenarios that must be on the table, and that we will develop in the following lines.
Without a doubt, today there is a majority opposed to the regime of Nicolas Maduro and the reason is already more than known: people got tired of the Chávez-Maduro governments that were so disastrous that even their followers died of hunger and those who survive no longer have breath left in their lungs to shout the old saying, “Chávez lives.” , the fighting continues”. Today they also want to end that nightmare.
On the other hand, in 2023 the opposition had a successful Primary and the regime had a consultative referendum on Essequibo with little participation, only that they played on the offensive and seeing the results of what they have left in the voters’ savings account , generated conflict actions with Guyana to cover up what happened on October 22 with the Primary and the election of the unitary candidate.
We see that Maduro will be the PSUV candidate and no matter how much he tries to make speculative comments, the corporation that brings them together is interested in maintaining it; He is the only one who unifies them. The last card they would play in extreme cases is to postpone the electoral process until 2025 only if they fail to keep the candidate disqualified. Maria Corina Machadobecause they know that otherwise they would be overwhelmingly defeated.
The card that they will try to play previously or that is in progress is to not enable María Corina, to convince and keep opposition leaders at bay so that they take away her political floor, but that move could go wrong since that does not mean that deprive her of the votes and favorable acceptance she enjoys.
Madurismo in this scenario is going to perfect the strategy they applied in the state of Barinas in the 2021 regional elections when they did not recognize the victory of Freddy Superlano and they called another election applying express disqualification to anyone who aspired to have a chance of winning, until Sergio Garrido emerged as the last option, with a low level of knowledge and nothing of significance in his political history, they gave him the nod and in the end Garrido He achieved a victory in Unidad over 40 thousand votes difference with Chávez’s son-in-law candidate who had the entire Government structure.
Now they are not going to underestimate the opposition and even the Garridos, to call in some way the candidates at the last minute, will be in the acid test, however, I am optimistic that under this scenario and whoever is the candidate and wears the jacket of the Unity and the support of candidate Machado will defeat Maduro.
The ideal scenario, the democratic one, the normal one, the one that we all want is for María Corina not to be disqualified, for her to compete under moderate conditions, for her to win, be sworn in and begin a transition in Venezuela.
For the latter to occur, it is not enough to have the votes because they already have the electoral unity that when executed despite the divisions of the opposition gives good results and despite the problems and conflicts in the world, the countries with clear interests in Venezuela They will try to be vigilant, but not like in 2019.
Therefore, citizens have the challenge of trusting the political leadership that enjoys greater credibility and understanding that the strategy to win does not necessarily have to be made known, since the opponent should not know it and there are infiltrators. As in dominoes: a game won is not blocked and today the one who loses is Maduro, he would only win by postponing the process for the following year.