Dr.. Khaled Cherkaoui Al-Samouni – Director of the Rabat Center for Political and Strategic Studies
The Spanish legislative elections took place on Sunday, July 23, 2023, in which the People’s Party, which represents the right-wing opposition in Spain, won, but did not obtain an absolute majority against the Socialist Party headed by outgoing Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, according to preliminary data from the Ministry of the Interior, after more than 98% of the votes were counted.
In first place is the People’s Party, which won 132, and in second place is the Socialists’ Party, which won 127. In third place, the far-right Vox party won 33 seats, ahead of the Somar party, a radical left party allied with Pedro Sanchez, which won 30 seats.
And even if it allies with Vox, the People’s Party led by Albert Núñez Fijo will get only 165 seats, far from the absolute majority, which is 176 seats.
On the other hand, we see that the left bloc (People’s Party and Soumar Party), which potentially includes 157 seats, is in a position that might qualify it to stay in power thanks to the support of several small Basque and Catalan formations that could bring it the 19 seats it lacks to reach an absolute majority.
In the event that this result is achieved, it will be a big surprise, since all opinion polls show the Socialists since their defeat in the municipal and regional elections on May 28, which convinced Pedro Sánchez to dissolve the Chamber of Deputies and call snap elections in July.
We point out that all the polls conducted during the last days of the campaign, which were announced on Sunday, July 23, when the polls closed, predicted a fairly wide victory for the People’s Party, with about 140 seats, and also predicted that it would approach or even exceed the absolute majority. Which did not happen.
Many Aruban countries fear the possible rise of the right-wing mainstream coalition and the Vox party, an ultra-nationalist, conservative party that explicitly opposes LGBTQI+ and abortion.
All predictions are possible, but there is a high probability that Pedro’s party will remain in power if it ally itself with the Socialists and all the small left-wing components.
